Iraqi InsurgentsÆ New Tactic: Disperse and Attack

[jamotto]

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JEDDAH, 17 November 2004 ÔÇö With the rebel city of Fallujah under US and interim Iraqi government control for the first time, the war-torn country appeared to be heading for a broader urban guerrilla challenge affecting a dozen towns in the so-called Sunni Triangle.

While US troops were largely in control of Fallujah yesterday, they were still meeting sporadic pockets of fierce resistance.

IraqÔÇÖs Interior Minister Faleh Hassan Al-Naqib admitted for the first time at a press conference in Baghdad that the interim government and the US led coalition faced a broad insurgency covering the Sunni heartland of the country.

Naqib made a number of other major revelations:

ÔÇó Contrary to previous assumptions that the insurgency consisted of dozens of disparate groups, it is a unified movement with a large measure of central command and control.

ÔÇó The overwhelming majority of the insurgents are Iraqis, not foreign fighters. In fact, non-Iraqi Arab fighters represent between four and six percent of the combatants. In Fallujah of the 1,200 insurgents killed, only 24 were non-Iraqis.

ÔÇó The remnants of Saddam HusseinÔÇÖs regime play a much bigger role in the insurgency than previously assumed.

ÔÇó The insurgency has developed some form of political leadership, operating from Syria. Naqib named the principal coordinator as Muhammad Yunus Ahmad, a former Baath party security official.

ÔÇó SaddamÔÇÖs regime had prepared special units for waging urban guerrilla warfare long before the US-led invasion in 2003. Those units have now been activated throughout the Sunni Triangle.

ÔÇó The insurgents aim at dispersing American firepower in what looks like a dress rehearsal for fomenting enough chaos to disrupt the elections scheduled for January 2005.

A series of apparently well-orchestrated and simultaneous attacks in Baiji, Baqubah, Ramadi, Haditha, Tikrit, and other localities showed that the insurgents have switched to hit-and-run tactics, abandoning their previous strategy of seizing and holding terrain that could be turned into safe havens.

The most dramatic illustration of this new tactic came in Mosul where insurgents attacked and temporarily seized control of nine police stations, looting arms and materiel stores.

Mosul, IraqÔÇÖs third largest city, was never in danger of falling into insurgent hands. But the daring raids achieved their two key objectives: Easing US military pressure on other localities in the Sunni Triangle, and rattling the nerves of the still fragile Iraqi police and army. The three-day raid on Mosul drew some 1,200 American troops away from Fallujah and Ramadi.

It also provoked the desertion of at least 300 newly recruited Iraqi policemen and troops. Mosul is ethnically very mixed with large communities of Kurds, Turkomans, Christians and Yazidis. Thus it is not a place where Sunni Arab insurgents could strike root. Saddam HusseinÔÇÖs efforts to Arabize the city by moving in his Sunni supporters inevitably created tensions.

Lightly armed insurgent forces are like grains of sand. As combat power is deployed against them they tend to drift away, either going to ground or seeking another battlefield on which to fight. They could also hide their arms and melt into the local population to reappear when and where an opportunity arises. This is exactly what has happened in Fallujah. The insurgents appear to have suffered serious losses in Fallujah, but not necessarily a knockout blow.

It is clear that some insurgents left Fallujah before the US-led assault and have embarked upon a coordinated series of attacks in Baqubah, Samarra and Mosul.

This implies a reasonably sophisticated level of centralized command. But in military terms it is far from clear what these various attacks amount to. It is also clear that the US simply does not have sufficient troops on the ground to maintain order in several key cities at once while launching a major offensive against another.

Once Fallujah is secure the US may have more troops available to put down the sporadic violence elsewhere. But it is still far from clear what message Sunni leaders have taken from the Fallujah operation.

Despite expectations that the fall of Fallujah would break the back of the insurgency it seems to have produced unintended consequences. The insurgents were using an estimated 3,000 to 4,000 men to hold Fallujah. It seems that at least half of them got away and were almost immediately deployed for attacks in other localities. This means that the insurgents, abandoning their tactic of holding to territory, can wreak havoc in many more places with fewer fighters. In Fallujah they were fixed targets while the US-led force was moving. Now they become mobile while the US-led forces, especially Iraqi police and army units, become fixed targets.

Analysts say the fighting the past few days has shown that the insurgents have little chance of winning a war over territory. But they can achieve tactical political objectives that could prevent IraqÔÇÖs stabilization anytime soon.

The big prize is the January 2005 elections. If the insurgents manage to have it postponed or canceled they would emerge as winners, at least of this round. If, on the other hand, the elections are held on time, the insurgency might find it hard to sustain itself even within the Sunni Triangle.

The first signs that the interim government, headed by Prime Minister Iyad Allawi may have been rattled came yesterday when Naqib hinted that the elections might be postponed. Hours later, however, Deputy Premier Barham Salih rejected any suggestion that the exercise could be postponed.

ÔÇ£We have a moral pact with the Iraqi people to hold the elections,ÔÇØ he said.

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[Wolfheart]

Everyone is defending their own beliefs,you may think diplomacy is "coexisting in harmony" and you should be happy to live in a democratic country.Those guys-believe it or not-have beliefs which are *as worthy as* yours.From my POV they have every right to defend their way of life(by whatever means necessary),as you have every right to invade for yours.If america manages to convert Iraq to diplomacy,its because america has a stronger army,NOT because diplomacy is a superior(I mean rationally) system than Iraqs one.

European way of life is dominating the world not because its better(I mean better at making people happy) but because its stronger and more aggressive.

[El Che]

The overwhelming majority of insurgents are Iraqi?

What does that tell you?

"Oh great leader bush, you have freed us from the horrific lives we once led. Why in the hell did we worship Allah for all these years? We have been fools. We love american voting systems, especially this diebold computerized thing. And while you're at it could you put some of your starbucks coffee places in and around baghdad? we love you, george"