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Hey SC are you battening down the hatches

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This one looks nasty take a look at This.

Batten down the hatches, she is coming your way SC!!

Gonna have a hurricane party, or gonna head for the hills?

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Update, hope you guys understand this stuff, I do a little bit, but not whole lot.

quote:

000

WTNT43 KNHC 110240

TCDAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2003

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T6.5...127 KT...AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT. THE MOST RECENT 3-HR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS JUST BELOW 130 KT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY NO UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH... THERE ARE TWO VERY EFFICIENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS OPERATING TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY INWARD BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9. THE WESTWARD TRACK IS THE RESULT OF A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF ISABEL NEAR 30N. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SLIDE WESTWARD WITH ISABEL FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND MAINTAIN ISABEL ON A TRACK JUST A BIT NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEARLY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWS THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AND ALLOWS THE TRACK TO SLOW AND BEND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. THE FOUR MAIN TRACK MODELS... THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5...AS THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY NORTHWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT GUIDANCE...BUT IS STILL ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE ONE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...A MODEL VERY SKILLED AT FORECASTING LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS...WHICH IS SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTH OF THE OTHERS IN BRINGING ISABEL NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BY DAY 5.

IT IS NATURAL TO WANT TO SPECULATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 5 DAYS...BUT IT SIMPLY IS NOT POSSIBLE TO DO SO WITH CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY ON HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST BY DAY 5. THE EXTENT AND ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGING WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

GIVEN THAT ISABEL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM THESE AREAS...THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS IN CASE ISABEL BECOMES A DIRECT THREAT.

THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT INTO ISABEL IS SCHEDULED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MISSIONS TO SAMPLE THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT OF ISABEL ARE ALSO SCHEDULED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 21.1N 52.8W 125 KT

12HR VT 11/1200Z 21.2N 54.3W 125 KT

24HR VT 12/0000Z 21.4N 56.2W 125 KT

36HR VT 12/1200Z 21.7N 58.0W 120 KT

48HR VT 13/0000Z 22.0N 60.0W 120 KT

72HR VT 14/0000Z 23.0N 64.0W 115 KT

96HR VT 15/0000Z 24.0N 68.0W 115 KT

120HR VT 16/0000Z 25.0N 71.5W 115 KT


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Hey SC we got a spare room up here in Pittsburgh. All you have to worry about here is perpetual traffic cones and 67 sunny days a year..woo hoo!

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I live about, 30 minutes from the SC and I can tell you sure as hell I've sounded "condition yellow." We are intently watching to see what this beast is gonna do. If it continues on it's course, tomorrow we are going to be tieing stuff down and boarding up windows. If it maintains course, we will be heading north in two days. This could be the real deal.

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quote:


Originally posted by Jaguar:

Update, hope you guys understand this stuff,


Yeah, I understand it. It means we're all gonna die.

Seriously though, I'm in Fort Lauderdale (inland) and even if it hits, it is not likely to cause much damage in this area. Especially since I live in an area that was built pre-Andrew; which means that they have stringent building codes introduced after that sum***** hit back in '92 (?)

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quote:

Originally posted by Supreme Cmdr:

quote:

Originally posted by Jaguar:

Update, hope you guys understand this stuff,


Yeah, I understand it. It means we're all gonna die.

Seriously though, I'm in Fort Lauderdale (inland) and even if it hits, it is not likely to cause much damage in this area. Especially since I live in an area that was built pre-Andrew; which means that they have stringent building codes introduced after that sum***** hit back in '92 (?)


Forget the death and destruction just make sure your current games are well protected don't want you to have to start from scratch programing them now do we .

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quote:


Originally posted by XOR:

just pray that no battlecruisers are passing by while the storm hits cus we all know how water is their weakness


LOL!! It is?

Anyway, I use WeathebugPro, so I get up-to-the-minute stats on weather conditions, via its HurricaneNet feature.

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where i live we get NOTHING. no volcanos, no tornados, no hurricanes, no earthquakes, no nukes, no alien invasions... just slushy winters and stupid politicians

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quote:

Originally posted by Epsilon 5:

where i live we get NOTHING. no volcanos, no tornados, no hurricanes, no earthquakes, no nukes, no alien invasions... just slushy winters and stupid politicians

I think good Poutine and Gyros make up for it though...

Cheers!

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Glad i'm on the Gulf, though if it came this way we would either batten down, or most likey evacuate since the base is right on Pensacola Bay. Either way I'll probably wind up helping with the clean up. Good old Navy

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quote:

Originally posted by Epsilon 5:

where i live we get NOTHING. no volcanos, no tornados, no hurricanes, no earthquakes, no nukes, no alien invasions... just slushy winters and stupid politicians

What!? No blackouts either?

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quote:

Originally posted by LostInSpace:

quote:

Originally posted by Epsilon 5:

where i live we get NOTHING. no volcanos, no tornados, no hurricanes, no earthquakes, no nukes, no alien invasions... just slushy winters and stupid politicians

What!? No blackouts either?


we had one in january 1998 (ice storm), some were out of power for a few months but at home it was only 2 short days.

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quote:


Originally posted by Epsilon 5:

where i live we get NOTHING. no volcanos, no tornados, no hurricanes, no earthquakes, no nukes, no alien invasions... just slushy winters and stupid politicians


We save the slushy winters here in ITALY but we are doomed with stupid politicians too!!!!!!

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quote:


Originally posted by Steve Schacher:

Derek,

Two words:
Off-site backup!


wot? And get rid of the USB key drive I wear around my neck as a fashion statement? Not a chance m8!

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Well, looks like you guys in Florida are gonna get lucky, this sucker looks like it's aimed for the North Carolina coast.

So any of you guys on the east coast up that way, here she comes and she is one bad mother, she is a full force 5 and looks like she has no intention of weakening at all.

She is gonna take out her anger on the east coast, and man is she pissed!!

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quote:

Originally posted by Commander Elio Jason:

i think she has political issues

Maybe she's mad at Bush like the rest of the far world.

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Just frightening.....

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quote:


Originally posted by LostInSpace:

[QB] The truth about hurricanes. Remember you will not find this anywhere but here (unfortunately)


wot?

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ROFLMAO!!!

that would actually make a fun game (idea! )

anyway... i hope they cancel school for this

we havent had a hurricaine day here for the last 4 years (NJ) the only way it would really be bad is if it shuts down the power

PS yes i know ive been gone for a while.....

PPS hehe i havent made more than one ps in a long time lol

PPPS anyway, ive been gone for a few reasons, 1. im bored of BCM (i dont have enough cash for gold) so im waiting for BCG (if it isnt out yet, ive been gone a while) 2. ive been programming, i have been learning html,java,perl,and i just started with c++ 4 days ago (im getting good too ) 3. ive been working on a computer game with a few other people online (ive been doing mostly the backround story, mission ideas, and a bit of animating).... its called Revenge Of The Bunnies, if you want you can checkout the site here and even signup for the forums....

PPPPS so i guess im back now and stuff.....

PPPPPS dont shoot me

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quote:

Originally posted by Supreme Cmdr:

quote:

Originally posted by LostInSpace:

[QB] The truth about hurricanes. Remember you will not find this anywhere but here (unfortunately)


wot?


Opppss, I just realized people could take that the wrong way. The "Unfortunately" was mean't for the picture (in other words it was intended as a diss on my pic) and was not intended as a shot at the BC forum. Sorry.

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