Israeli hawks circle Iran's N-plants

[Guest $iLk]

UK Telegraph

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By Tim Butcher in Jerusalem

(Filed: 12/08/2005)

Ever since its 1979 Islamic revolution the only fate Iran has had in mind for Israel has been simple: its destruction. Now that Teheran seems to be moving towards acquiring its own nuclear arsenal, its plans for its great enemy threaten to be both fiery and radioactive.

Sometimes Iran's stated policy towards Israel is couched in inflammatory rhetoric, like that on a 40ft banner that used to hang outside the entrance of the foreign ministry in Teheran bearing the message: "Israel Must Burn".

Sometimes the language is tamer, such as the "Down With Israel" chants of students who march after Friday prayers in Teheran week in, week out.

But whatever the tone, the message remains the same. The Jewish state has survived wars, internal upheaval, intifadas and bloody entanglements in the internal affairs of its neighbours. But now a major enemy, one committed to its annihilation, appears close to deploying the most destructive force known to Man.

"Having the ayatollah regime armed with nuclear weapons is an existential threat to the state of Israel," Mark Regev, senior spokeman at its foreign ministry, admitted grimly. "We take the issue extremely seriously.''

But while the danger Israel faces is clear, what it should do about the threat poses much more of a quandary.

Some Israelis cite the precedent of the 1981 unilateral Israeli airstrike on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor. Israel, they argue, should do the same again and launch pre-emptive military attacks on Iran's growing nuclear infrastructure.

But Iran has developed its nuclear programme with such a scenario in mind. It has deliberately spread its facilities far and wide, using nine locations, according to one intelligence source.

And each facility is buried under tons of reinforced concrete, making it more difficult to destroy, even with the help of the BLU-109 "bunker-buster" bombs the US is selling its closest Middle Eastern ally.

Iran, moreover, is further away from Israel than Iraq, raising even greater doubts about the ability of the F15 and F16 planes Israel would use in any air raids to reach their target and then make it home without being refuelled.

And there is also the question of how the aircraft would get close enough to hit their targets. The US controls Iraqi airspace but it seems inconceivable that Washington would open it up to Israeli combat jets and tankers.

While the problems facing air strikes are significant, Israel's military nevertheless believes it has the means to cause serious damage to the Iranian nuclear capability.

Israel's cruise missiles, launched from planes or submarines, give the country a capability that it did not have in 1981 when it attacked the Iraqi reactor with a conventional bombing sortie.

"It's a bit more challenging in Iran but the military option remains a real one," said David Ivri, a retired Israeli air force officer who commanded Operation Opera, the attack on Iraq's reactor.

"After all, the aim would not be to neutralise the Iranian nuclear programme. That would be impossible. But what we could do is delay it considerably.

"That was our aim in Iraq and that is what we achieved - a very long delay.''

The calculation Israel must make is a simple one: when will Iran become a nuclear power?

The Iraq attack was launched only when Israel's intelligence concluded that Saddam Hussein's regime was within a year of producing its own nuclear weapons.

It also followed a lengthy diplomatic campaign by Israel to dissuade France from selling nuclear technology to Iraq. When that failed, Mossad agents blew up components due to be shipped to Iraq at a warehouse in France.

Only when it was clear that Iraq's nuclear programme continued did Operation Opera get the green light.

According to a senior figure in the Israeli Defence Force quoted in the Jerusalem Post, Iran will not be able to produce a nuclear bomb until 2008 at the earliest; 2012 is a more realistic date and experts believe that the current situation is insufficiently acute to warrant military action.

"The best-case scenario for Israel is that the negotiations between Iran and the European Union succeed," said Emily Landau, senior research associate at the Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv. "And at the moment that is still the most likely possibility.

"If you look at the wording of every statement by Iran, they sound defiant but always include some sort of reference to the talks and the possibility of some sort of new initiative. As long as this sort of language continues, then a full-blown crisis can be avoided."

This would suit Israel, which backs the negotiations and wants to avoid turning the current crisis into a row between Iran and itself.

As long as international negotiators are taking the lead, Israel is happy to stay on the sidelines.

And there is one important factor at play: it is one of the Middle East's worst kept secrets that Israel has the nuclear bomb. Iran certainly knows this and it will have a clear deterrent effect.

The result is that Israel might not need to take pre-emptive military action against Iran - if only because Teheran would never use a nuclear weapon against Israel for fear of itself being attacked, and annihilated, by the Jewish state's nuclear arsenal.

[email protected]

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[Guest $iLk]

For the record I would not oppose a pre-emptive strike by Israel in this case.

[sckid1108]

I oppose a pre-emptive strike by israel on several grounds.

1) Why is this Israel's problem and/or responsibility ? The US and Europe, if their policy is to have a non-nuclear Iran then it is their diplomatic issue to deal with. Personally I want the US and Europe out of Israeli politics they have enough to deal with without the interference of big brother and the European's who are famous for their love of Jews and Judaism.

2) What are we really admitting here? That Iran has stated it's intention to nuke Israel ? Is this what we expect of Iran ? If that is true you would think the world would act pre-emptively or unilaterally against an "Islamic Bomb". Is it that we don't believe the threat, don't care, or don't take it seriously ?

Most likely Israel has nukes and all that would happen between Iran and Israel is a nuclear stalemate.

For my part I am OK with that since it is my expectation that the Islamic government in Iran is not long for this world.

Let's be honest, we're not concerned with Israel being nuked, what we're concerned with is that the Mullahs develop atomic weapons and sell them to anybody on the planet with a couple million in spare change.

[John Prezioso]

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Why is this Israel's problem and/or responsibility ?

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Becaues they in all likelihood would be the first target of an Iranian nuclear bomb.

Don't you remember during the first Gulf War? Israel did nothing while the Allies attacked Iraqi-held Kuwait. yet practically ALL of the launched scuds targeted Israel. Their very existence offends the radical Muslim regimes.

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Let's be honest, we're not concerned with Israel being nuked, what we're concerned with is that the Mullahs develop atomic weapons and sell them to anybody on the planet with a couple million in spare change.

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I do care that my Jewish brethren would be wiped off the earth. But your scenario is a frightening one, no doubt.

[Guest]

Israel should take them out, and NOW.

BEFORE they are a true threat, then, when Iran attacks Israel in retaliation, with the cooperation of the Iranian Democratic movement, we invade Iran from Iraq, then as soon as we disarm them, we go back to Iraq, and let the Iranians put together their new government.

[John Prezioso]

I have no doubt Israel will do what needs to be done. Talk about a hard-edged, tough people - these people have stared annihilation in the face since the 1943 and haven't even blinked.

[Guest $iLk]

I think Sharon has turned his back on the Conservative wing of his party, much the same as Bush has done to his own base.

It's going to come back to bite both the US and Israel in the ass to have such weak-willed leaders.

[John Prezioso]

I am a big Netanyahu admirer, myself. How about you?

[Guest]

Netanyahu is THE MAN!!

The Israelis are tired of Sharon, he has backstabbed them enough.

Gaza Strip? Come on, what kind of idiot gives up a piece of land that cuts through the center of Israel?

ANd what is this Palestine BS?

Palestine does NOT exist, has NEVER existed, and is now going to exist because a bunch of people have decided that they are "Palestinian".

Give me a flipping break, this is like a bunch of people moving to the Rocky Mountains, calling themselve Rockovians or something, and then claiming that they have a right to the rocky mountains.

Give me a flipping break, Israel ought to send them ALL back to where they came from, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan.

[John Prezioso]

It is comforting to me to know that I could always go to live in Israel if the "American Experiment" turned out to be a dud!

I visted Haifa Israel in '96 and I LOVED it. The people were friendly, proud, and patriotic. What a great country.

[sckid1108]

Israel is totally sweet ( at least for the number of weeks I spent there. ) How's your hebrew Prez ?

My point is we seem to be relying on a very small country to be doing a lot of the dirty lifting in the middle-east. Our support for this little green dirt ball we all love goes something like this: " bomb iran for us and we'll make you give gaza to hamas, oh and while your at it give them guns and ammo..."

According to my israeli pals they don't trust netanyahu AT ALL.

I don't either.

No offense but give me a real jew to run the country not a left over zionist from 1948.

Like: Effie Etam or Moshe Feiglin or Paul Eidelberg. You know somebody that wears a kippah more than once a year...

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This summer was really tough in Jerusalem, my wife and I were *priviledged* enough to witness the black-suited + jack booted police beat the street protestors. Not to mention the two IDF soldiers that went at it with fists. This disengagement is a real chillul hashem.

L'hitraot

p.s. Still a WONDERFUL country to visit. People were friendly and took us into their homes. Yeshivahs were fun and the food was to die for.

p.p.s DONT TRUST THE MEDIA ON ISRAEL.

Suggestion: http://www.israelnn.com

[John Prezioso]

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How's your hebrew Prez ?

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Perfectly horrible!

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Like: Effie Etam or Moshe Feiglin or Paul Eidelberg. You know somebody that wears a kippah more than once a year...

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I'll have to defer to you on this - I am just an admirer of him.

[sckid1108]

I think you misunderstood jag's point. He is differentiating between the invented identity of "palestinian" arabs and the phillistines of ancient history. Nobody makes this mistake so let's give Jag the benefit of the doubt ;-)

Also no one disputes that there are many arabic dialects just like nobody disputes that there are variations in hebrew ( ashkenazic, sephardic, yeminite, etc.) grammar and pronunciation.

The point is that none of this is relevant to the current political situation.

If people are going to play the "my people were here first card" then I guess the Jews get to play the "Creator of the Universe gave us this land and if you don't like it look what happened to Bilaam card." It gets more fun when you wheel out the Quran quotes that support the Jewish claim to Israel (see Sheikh Prof. Abdul Hadi Palazzi) and the Yusuf Ali translation of the Quran into English. http://frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=11194 )

For giggles do you folks remember when Arafat (yimach shemo) claimed that the palestinians were the descendants of the ancient canaanites ? Real funny stuff coming from a guy born in Egypt (Cairo, Aug 4th, 1929).

For a nice treatment of the modern day history of the Israeli/Arab conflict see David Meir-Levi ( many excellent articles). http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadA...le.asp?ID=18072

Enjoy

p.s. hey Nomad, if your wife is a sephardi jew then you know that the sephardi cholent is like 100x better than the ashkenazi stuff ! I mean we're not in RUSSIA anymore, people can leave the shoe leather out of the pot now...

[Guest]

Nomad,

Palestine as a country HAS NEVER existed, it is part of the countryside, just as the Rocky Mountains are part of the United States.

THere is NO such thing as a "Palestinian" in a political sense.

They are a FICTION.

There NEVER has been a country called Palestine, and there have NEVER been a people called Palestinians.

You obviously misunderstood me, or are just acting arrogant, as you usually do.

[John Prezioso]

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besides the fact that a wealth of archeological evidence points out that science contradicts many assertions found in the Bible, not on the level of these event's existence, but at the TIME they occurred (what changes quite a lot of things...), it is obvious that negociations between populations who believe that a given land pertain to them by divine will is extremely difficult.

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Nomad, It wasn't the (main) point of your post (which was very good, though I think you were a tad hard on Jag), but don't miss this excellent post by Ben Zwycky to your assertion in 2)

http://www.3000ad.com/ubb/ultimatebb.php?u...0066;p=2#000072

edit: I see that you saw it. Quite informative.

[sckid1108]

Good morning everyone ( Boker Tov ),

I have a tummy ache so I am home today from work. Very interesting discussion but dangerously off topic, for which I'll take the blame.

As to Palestinian IDENTITY I will agree with Nomad that at this point in time it has been successfully constructed as was the intention and strategy over the last few years. See Mr. Faisel's work in particular to read all about this.

From my 'arm-chair' research I have seen a wealth of biblical archeaology that is in full accord with the interpretation of our sages. Something to keep in mind is that only a VERY small percentage of the archaeological sites in Israel have been excavated. Finkelstein and Silberman have their critics (devastating critics IMHO). There are some excellent texts that give a more, um, pro-bible perspective:

"From Text To Tradition", Schiffman

"Reclaiming the Dead Sea Scrolls", Schiffman

"Israel in Egypt", by James Hoffmeier

"Biblical Personalities and Archaeology", by Leah Bronner

All in all there is a rational case for traditional judaism, but that is something for another time. Let me put it this way, in Israel you have the luxury of choosing to be an atheist. In Islam ... well...

To Nomads 3rd point about flux of populations. This is very true in the middle-east. Now until recently Jewish populations followed matrilineal descent and the intermarriage rate hovered at around "0.02%". What you find is that because of some of the forced conversions, intermarriages, etc. that there are people with Jewish heritage in surprising places. There are cases of palestinian youths involved in violence against israel that turned out to be jewish. etc.

Still to summarize this is a war between cousins no doubt. What remains after all this time is that Jewish identity is a mix of spiritual identification AND/OR genetics. For visual picture... there are a handful of orthodox Japanese converts ( gerim) to Judaism. How's that for a little Osem in your Semitic Soup :-)

To Nomad's fourth point. Without going into a hairy debate, the Arabs started the wars they have to deal with their own refugee problem. In every negotiation the parties bring to the table issues that are "Non-Negotiable". For Israel this is one of them. From a PURELY practical standpoint flooding israel with the hostile children of refugees would not aid Israel's security, Jewish character, or quality of life. I for one support the idea of the raison d'etre for Israel is as a jewish state. People do take that position as "racist" but I would comment that they are being hypocritical on several accounts. We can debate that later but I refer you to the signs in pre-WW2 europe that read "Jews To Palestine !" and the signs that now read " Jews Out Of Palestine !". Point being is that Jews need Israel, just like the world need a Jewish Israel. In a sad way the Arabs need a Jewish Israel to hate, to love, and to show that there can be a decent country in that part of the world.

Nomads 5th point is absolutely true ( read Nonie darwish, Walid Shoebat, Briggite Gabriel, http://www.arabsforisrael.com ). Unfortunately they are a small minority who's voice is utterly crushed through violence. Not to mention the ethnic cleansing of Arab-Christians from the PA territories, nothing but a steady decline in population and violent oppression. To your point about "collective punishment" and what it's effects are. This is a WAR, a fight to the death. In the long run it is in Israel's interest to fight until they secure an unconditional surrender. It is ugly, bloody, and brutal, BUT THIS IS WHY WE AVOID WAR. Again the Arabs get the boogie prize for this, The three "NO's" at the Khartoum conference. For the Arabs the Palestinians are cheap cannon fodder to be used in a proxy war. Israel doesn't have the luxury to be expending the lives of many soldiers to "arrest" a single terrorist. That is not how you win a war.

6th point. De-nuclearization. This has pro's and con's. Without nukes you open the door to a large-scale conventional war ala 1948,1967,1973,etc. The other point is nukes in the middle-east ? Dude, Israel is TINY you nuke tel-aviv and they will feel the fallout in Cairo. Not to mention you can see Saudi Arabia from a hilltop in Jerusalem. Not that a nutcase would care... The pro is that non-proliferation would hopefully minimize rogue groups from attaining serious firepower. As for being a match for the IDF, Egyptian forces, Jordan, & Saudi are all obtaining access to modern american weaponry. Just because Israel historically had victories (miraculous) in the past doesn't garauntee their success in the future. I personally would not give my enemies the opportunity or incentive to come at me again in a land war.

Oh the muslim countries are armed to the teeth have no fear :-) Remember they hate eachother along with Israel. It's the middle-east you have to be hospitable, feed your guests, carry a heavy machinegun, and pray 3 to 5 times a day !

P.s. The food in spain was good, the food in Italy was GREAT ! ( uh oh, I might have just started a food fight )....

P.p.s A great tool for getting past the PA propaganda is to examine the lives of the non-Arab Muslim minorities in the ME. Kurds, Chrisitians, Jews, you know Dhimmis. A nation will a real respect for human rights and equal oportunity displays those values across the board. For the minorities in the ME there has been only oppression and at best 2nd class citizenship. Remeber the hundreds of thousands of Arab-Jewish refugees from muslim countries...

http://www.landmarkmedia.com/video.php?video=957

[sckid1108]

I apologize, one last point.

Nomad said that Finkelstein and Silberman are not trying to undermine the bible's import, now since I have only a passing aquaitance with Finkelstein's work I'll grant him an academic pass. What is SAD is that their work is being used to undermine Judaism, like this cute little snippet from Amazon's Friendly Universal Customer Review team (tm, patent pending)....

( read the 2nd to last paragraph )

Very good despite a few small problems, June 23, 2005

Reviewer: [email protected] (Dallas, Texas) - See all my reviews

Israel Finkelstein and Neil Silberman have earned their pay. "The Bible Unearthed: Archaeology's New Vision of Ancient Israel and the Origin of Its Sacred Texts" rocks. This book simply puts to rout the sickening mythology underlying Judaism and Christianity. Even though I found the lack of end or foot notes and the authors employment of 'begging the question' bothersome, the findings of modern archaeology dispel the darkness of superstition. Without the patriarchs, Moses and the Exodus, the conquest of Canaan, or a unified kingdom, the basis of the three major monotheisms crumble.

This is very good. Humanity need no longer be chained to vile and destructive mind viruses. As light replaces darkness, so truth supplants lies. The Israelites were indigenous to Canaan rather than invaders from Egypt. The Northern kingdom did not succeed from the united monarchy, rather it formed as a natural expression of the times. The Omride dynasty was not the villainous evil portrayed by the bible, but were instead strong and competent rulers for their people. Despite contradictory assertions regarding the size of settlements in Jerusalem during the middle bronze age, (On page 239-240 the authors indicate the late Middle Bronze age settlement Urusalim "... was a small highlands stronghold, located in the southeastern ridge of ancient Jerusalem..." while on page 323 the authors tell us "Shechem ... Bethel and Jerusalem - all three were massive Middle Bronze strongholds.") there is much to learn from this book.

The authors conclusion regarding the Omrides is strongly at odds with the biblical tone expressed by the writers and editors of the Kings and Chronicles. On page 194 we read: "The true character of Israel under the Omrides involves an extraordinary story of military might, architectural achievement, and (as far as can be determined) administrative sophistication. Omri and his successors earned the hatred of the Bible precisely because they were so strong, precisely because they succeeded in transforming the nothern kingdom into an important regional power that completely overshadowed the poor, marginal, rural-pastoral kingdom of Judah to the south. The possibility that the Israelite kings who consorted with the nations, married foreign women, and built Canaanite-type shrines and palaces would prosper was both unbearable and unthinkable."

Indeed it was unthinkable to the blood thirsty barbaric cult of the hill god YHWH. The human and animal sacrifice practiced by the proto Judites (as well as most of the other peoples in the region) and supression of Asherah fertility cults show how unthinkable northern success was. Changing from a matriarchal to patriarchal society brought with it the mindset prohibiting acceptance of the Northern kingdom as well as the debasement of women. Finklestein and Silberman briefly touch on YHWH's married status (to Asherah ) on page 242 in the course of describing the polytheistic practices of the poor and jealous southern kingdom. This rich area of study is being harvested by others. Surely the authors of "The Bible Unearthed" could have devoted more than a couple of paragraphs to this topic as it underlies the murders and degradations heaped upon women of most cultures.

Buy this book and Finkelstein's new one. Perhaps, like the Assyrians, the time of Judaism and Xianity will come to a close.